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Was the War Good for Oil Companies?
Crude Thinking
Have you watched C-SPAN on a Sunday morning recently? Well, as a professional talk-show host this experience has given me a newfound appreciation for my call screener. It doesn\'t matter who the guest is or what the topic. Alexander Hamilton on American economics? Let\'s go to the phones: \"Bush\'s leading us into an oil war!\" The role of the free press as related to the thinking of Alexis Tocqueville? You\'re on the air caller: \"Bush is doing the bidding of the oil companies at the expense of American lives!
Oil & War
The chart above represents average annual domestic first-purchase prices per barrel of oil, expressed in inflation-adjusted terms, with all prices in 2003 dollar values. There are two notable spikes associated with unrest in the Gulf region:
1. Note the spike in the time leading up to and during the first Gulf War crisis, which started in late 1990 and ended early 1991. This spike represents an increase in oil prices of $7.45 per barrel from 1988 through 1990.
2. Note the spike occurring now, in the midst of the Iraqi disarmament crisis. This spike — from early 2002 to late February 2003 — represents an increase in oil prices of $13.87 per barrel.
S&P Beats Oil
If you sold American oil-company stocks this week and used the money to buy the S&P Index, you made a lot of money. If, however, you were a purveyor of the Bush-is-under-the-control-of-Big-Oil-and-is-pursuing-its-interests-in-Iraq theory, then you didn’t do so well.
Oil vs. S&P
Here is a link to an article which I wrote for NROfn, the financial section of the online edition of National Review magazine. It shows that in the year running up to the initiation of Operation Iraqi Freedom, oil company stock prices actually fell relative to general stock indicies like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In fact large oil and gas companies lost in aggregate over 122 billion dollars. Click [a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_buzzcharts/bowyer032003.asp"]here[/a]to see the entire article.